Jared and I met in Calculus, and boy it’s been a great match. Our common love for pragmatism, efficiency, beach houses, and great food have served us well. I am thrilled to collaborate together on a series, Data Crunch that looks at the data behind long held pieces of popular conceptions. Can Peyton Manning throw in the cold? Does the color of tie really influence a Presidential debate? Visit us every Monday to see what we’ll look at next! Suggestions for future posts? Suggest above!
For full disclosure, our family bleeds blue and orange. And what a great year to be a Bronco’s fan. As the playoffs have approached, we have spent more than a moment fretting about — How will Peyton play in the cold? Will it be warm in New York? And I’m not the only one. If you ask Google, “Can Peyt-” it fills in the rest. Can Peyton Manning play in the cold.
We’ve read the articles. We’ve seen him play. Is there any truth to the rumor? And if not, why does it persist?
Peyton Manning began his career in Indianapolis, playing at home in a dome at home for 13 years. He has been dogged by the story that he can’t play outside in the cold. So we set to looking at the data to see how closely we need to monitor the weather in East Rutherford, NY in the weeks leading up to Super Bowl XLVIII.
We took Manning’s win-loss record, measured statistics from every game, game day temperature and ran a logistic regression. [for those racking their brain back to college statistics — since the important outcome of each game will be one of two things, win or loss, you can use logistics regression to identify the important factors that determine whether it will be a win or a loss, and evaluate how much each factor influences the final game result. The resulting table shows you which factors you might want to look at more closely.]
Regression analysis indicated air temperature was a significant factor, so we took a closer look at game time temperature, results pictured below.
Peyton’s Win/Loss Percentages, broken down into three temperature ranges
(10°-40°, 40°-70° and 70°-100°)
Well, data doesn’t lie and this does not look good for January play.
*We decided to label anything colder than Denver “cold.” This makes us nervous, as we wouldn’t say Denver is warm, but we are using “cold” to mean colder than Manning typically plays in.
Let’s see how this can be explained.
Click below to see what may be behind this.